How do the SHINE Recommendations relate to those in the National Space Weather Program Implementation Plan?


The National Space Weather Program Implementation Plan includes three major elements for solar/interplanetary aspects:

The recommendations of the plan within these three elements map to the SHINE January 1997 Boulder Workshop recommendations in the following ways:

SHINE Category 1:"Research aimed at providing reliable warning of incipient solar disturbances that are likely to be geoeffective"


SHINE NSWP
Analyses of solar wind data; L1-Earth correlation studies
  • Maintain an L1 or equivalent upstream monitor capability for carrying out the above investigations and for maintaining at least a one-hour forecast capability for major geomagnetic storms.
  • Maintain upstream monitors providing at least V, B, and solar wind density to both test solar wind forecasting models in retrospective analyses ... and to make ~1 hour forecasts and nowcasts.
Multi-spacecraft evaluation of effects of disturbance geometry
  • Investigate the utility and capabilities of a solar wind monitor placed near Venus or Mercury orbit for predicting solar wind disturbances near Earth.
  • Develop the Solar Probe mission to learn more about the solar wind origin and acceleration, and its connection to the solar magnetic field structure
Real-time algorithms for projected flow state at Earth
  • Continue to regularly monitor the full-disk magnetic field to both validate models and attempt long-lead time predictions of solar wind behavior using the models. In addition, methods should be developed to determine observationally the full-disk vector B field on a regular basis (e.g. with IR magnetographs) since this forms the basis for many of the potential forecasting model boundary conditions.
  • Develop methods for determining the solar wind velocity near the Sun from remote observations, including those based on full disk magnetic field observations
Magnetic cloud detection and evaluation of prospective geomagnetic effectiveness
  • Develop models of the CME initiation process that use realistic observable boundary conditions at the Sun to predict "injection" speed, mass, and intrinsic magnetic field attributes of the ejecta.
  • Develop 3D MHD models of CME-generated disturbance propagation in the solar wind from the Sun to beyond Earth's orbit. These models should strive to simulate the CME structure itself as well as the perturbation caused by the CME in the ambient interplanetary medium. They should ultimately be able to describe disturbance initiation and propagation from the base of the corona to 1 AU using realistic initial conditions for the ambient wind and realistic boundary conditions for the CME disturbance itself.
Patterns in energetic particle fluxes, relation to interplanetary structures
  • Develop 3D models of particle acceleration by CME-driven interplanetary shocks. These models should be capable of predicting the intensity and time history of the CME-associated energetic particle events at 1 AU given a realistic model of the disturbance propagation as in the above bullet.
  • Develop models of the CME-driven shock related radio emission (E&M) process. These models are needed to optimize the use of radio noise as a remote sensing device and as a diagnostic of approaching CMEs.

SHINE Category 2: "Research dealing with longer-term forecast topics":


SHINE NSWP
Patterns of coronal evolution (systematic structural changes, differential rotation profiles, "coronal trumpets", etc.)
  • Maintain ground-based coronagraph observation activities to provide a measure of global solar CME activity levels, and to increase the data base for investigations of solar cycle variations of CMEs.
  • Develop full disk IR magnetograph technology for ground-based (and possibly space-based) monitoring of the full-vector solar magnetic fields.
  • Continue to regularly monitor the full-disk magnetic field to both validate models and attempt long-lead time predictions of solar wind behavior using the models. In addition, methods should be developed to determine observationally the full-disk vector B field on a regular basis (e.g. with IR magnetographs) since this forms the basis for many of the potential forecasting model boundary conditions.
  • Optimize coronagraph capabilities for studying the behavior of CMEs as a function of radial distance.
  • Develop an EUV magnetograph capable of measuring coronal magnetic fields and test it on a spacecraft mission.
Influence of emerging flux and evolving shear patterns on active region and streamer belt structures / filament structure and evolution
  • Optimize coronagraph capabilities for studying the behavior of CMEs as a function of radial distance.
  • Pursue the development of balloon borne magnetographs like those in the Flare Genesis project, and assess there potential for operational use during the next solar maximum
  • Develop full disk IR magnetograph technology for ground-based (and possibly space-based) monitoring of the full-vector solar magnetic fields.
  • Improve magnetic field extrapolation models based on photospheric field measurements, allowing for anticipated high resolution magnetograph observations and eventually higher sensitivity full vector magnetic field data.
  • Develop 3D models for magnetic reconnection in active regions, including consideration of the processes that determine the distribution and magnitude of resistivity.
Models of background (quasi-steady) coronal and solar wind flow structure
  • Develop methods for determining the solar wind velocity near the Sun from remote observations need to be developed, including those based on full disk magnetic field observations
  • Develop the Solar Probe mission to learn more about the solar wind origin and acceleration, and its connection to the solar magnetic field structure
  • Develop 3D MHD models of the ambient solar wind (see Solar Wind section).
  • Develop 3-D MHD models of the coronal acceleration region of the solar wind, which use realistic magnetic field configurations.
  • Develop 3-D MHD models of the solar wind extension into interplanetary space, which use realistic inner boundary conditions. These include using the critical "geoeffectiveness" parameters of plasma velocity and density, and vector magnetic field.
  • Couple the above two models to determine an optimum proxy for specifying solar wind velocity prior to its free expansion into interplanetary space.
  • Develop 3D models of the solar atmosphere that include the transition region and coronal lines formed at higher temperatures than are currently being used.

SHINE Category 3: "Research providing general support to space weather applications in general and to the above two efforts, in particular":


SHINE NSWP
Theoretical and empirical models of the large scale distribution of charged particle populations and their acceleration, relative to CME structure / Mapping of spiral magnetic field lines and distortions induced by travelling disturbances
  • Study and assess radio capabilities for tracking solar wind disturbances in interplanetary space from the Sun to the Earth, including observations of both radio bursts and the interplanetary scintillation technique.
  • Develop 3D models of particle acceleration by CME-driven interplanetary shocks. These models should be capable of predicting the intensity and time history of the CME-associated energetic particle events at 1 AU given a realistic model of the disturbance propagation as in the above bullet.
  • Develop models of the CME-driven shock related radio emission (E&M) process. These models are needed to optimize the use of radio noise as a remote sensing device and as a diagnostic of approaching CMEs.
Insights into the coronal acceleration mechanism, to be gleaned from SOHO observations out to 30Rs
  • Develop techniques useful for understanding and predicting solar wind disturbances using soft x ray images of the Sun such as provided by Yohkoh and SOHO, in anticipation of the SXI x-ray monitoring spacecraft series.
  • Optimize coronagraph capabilities for studying the behavior of CMEs as a function of radial distance.
  • Develop methods for determining the solar wind velocity near the Sun from remote observations need to be developed, including those based on full disk magnetic field observations

SHINE Category 4: "Support for new observations relevant to space weather applications":


SHINE NSWP
The ISTP program. This is essential for SHINE goals in the space weather initiative. Every effort should be made to encourage collaborative participation by SOHO and WIND researchers.
  • Develop techniques useful for understanding and predicting solar wind disturbances using soft x ray images of the Sun such as provided by Yohkoh and SOHO, in anticipation of the SXI x-ray monitoring spacecraft series.
  • Extend the SOHO and Yohkoh observations through the next solar maximum and expedite their utilization in models relating to flare-related space weather effects
Develop programs for better in situ and imaging observations, such as the Solar Mass Ejection Imager (SMEI) and the Solar Terrestrial Observatory (STEREO) concepts.
  • Investigate the utility and capabilities of a solar wind monitor placed near Venus or Mercury orbit for predicting solar wind disturbances near Earth.
  • Develop a flare mission for the next maximum. A mission such as HESI that is under study at NASA will utilize advanced high resolution X-ray technology
  • Pursue the development of balloon borne magnetographs like those in the Flare Genesis project, and assess there potential for operational use during the next solar maximum
Develop a mechanism for taking advantage of unanticipated opportunities for spacecraft missions and ground-based observations relevant to space weather applications. / Occasional ventures entailing more than the usual risks.
  • Study and assess radio capabilities for tracking solar wind disturbances in interplanetary space from the Sun to the Earth, including observations of both radio bursts and the interplanetary scintillation technique.
  • Investigate the utility and capabilities of a solar wind monitor placed near Venus or Mercury orbit for predicting solar wind disturbances near Earth.
  • Pursue the development of balloon borne magnetographs like those in the Flare Genesis project, and assess there potential for operational use during the next solar maximum
  • The Solar Probe mission should be developed and used to learn more about the solar wind origin and acceleration, and its connection to the solar magnetic field structure

Since the NSWP Implementation Plan was written, several significant events have occurred such as adoption of a STEREO coronagraph mission by the NASA Roadmap Panel as a possible future Sun-Earth Connections Theme concept for the next NASA Strategic Plan, the successful prediction of the arrival of a CME (in January 1997) from SOHO/LASCO coronagraph observations of a "halo" coronal transient (followed by the apparent demise of an AT&T communications satellite due to the associated magnetospheric particle enhancement), and a NASA/NOAA workshop to predict the new solar maximum magnitude that concluded we are due for a maximum comparable to the last in activity level. These are expected to continue to increase in number and visibility as we continue toward the solar maximum.

The above tables suggest that SHINE's January 1997 Boulder Workshop recommendations are on-the-whole very consistent with the NSWP recommendations. Indeed, the main items that the SHINE group emphasized that did not appear in the latter were due to the relative ages of these documents. Since the NSWP Implementation Plan is intended to be a "living document", the SHINE list may serve as useful input for its next revision.