Major Flare Watch Evaluation

From RHESSI Wiki

Introduction

Flares that produce gamma-ray lines are the highest priority target of the RHESSI Mission. Multi-wavelength imaging and spectroscopic observations before, during and after such flares are crucial to their interpretation. To optimize such observations, the Max Millennium Chief Observers (MM_COs) [1] announce a Major Flare Watch when the probability of gamma-ray-producing flares is high. Such announcements [2] appear in the Max Millennium Messages of the Day [3], distributed to over 200 solar observers and mission planners through the self-subscribing MMmmotd mailing list and archive [4].

Throughout the RHESSI mission, the MM_COs have used a set of Major Flare Watch criteria [5] that are an outgrowth of the classic "BEARALERTS - A Successful Flare Prediction System" [6] paper by Zirin and Marquette (1991). A typical MFW announcement identifies the coordinates of a region likely to produce a major flare, and provides some rationale for the choice. How well has this system worked? That's the subject of this Nugget.