Solar Cycle 24

From RHESSI Wiki

(Difference between revisions)
Jump to: navigation, search
(added infobox)
(Summary: added D. Hathaway talk summary)
Line 7: Line 7:
== Summary ==
== Summary ==
The main goals of this meeting is to assess our current knowledge of solar activity to prepare for observations of the new major activity expected from the beginning of Carrington Cycle 24, and to encourage effective observations of this activity. There will be special emphasis on coordinating ACE, Hinode, STEREO, TRACE/SDO, SOHO, RHESSI and Wind observations, among others including ground-based.  The conference is composed of a mixture of invited and contributed talks in plenary sessions, plus focused working groups and took place December 8 - December 12, 2008.  The week before the AGU Fall meeting in San Francisco.  The location of the meeting is The Embassy Suites Hotel in Napa, California (wine country north of San Francisco). Check-in 16:00, Check-out 12:00. For those staying at the hotel there is daily complimentary cooked-to-order breakfast and evening manager's reception. The registration fee itself covers the meeting, coffee breaks and the conference dinner.  The official website can be found [http://sprg.ssl.berkeley.edu/RHESSI/napa2008/groups.php here]
The main goals of this meeting is to assess our current knowledge of solar activity to prepare for observations of the new major activity expected from the beginning of Carrington Cycle 24, and to encourage effective observations of this activity. There will be special emphasis on coordinating ACE, Hinode, STEREO, TRACE/SDO, SOHO, RHESSI and Wind observations, among others including ground-based.  The conference is composed of a mixture of invited and contributed talks in plenary sessions, plus focused working groups and took place December 8 - December 12, 2008.  The week before the AGU Fall meeting in San Francisco.  The location of the meeting is The Embassy Suites Hotel in Napa, California (wine country north of San Francisco). Check-in 16:00, Check-out 12:00. For those staying at the hotel there is daily complimentary cooked-to-order breakfast and evening manager's reception. The registration fee itself covers the meeting, coffee breaks and the conference dinner.  The official website can be found [http://sprg.ssl.berkeley.edu/RHESSI/napa2008/groups.php here]
 +
 +
== Notes ==
 +
=== Solar Activity Cycles - Past and Present by D. Hathaway (Marshall Space Flight Center) ===
 +
Will there be a cycle 24?  New cycle active regions have begun to show up the last two months.  The number of spotless days is more than twice that of the last few cycles.  Also Cycle 23 is the longest cycle than the last few cycles.  Looking at a stastics of older cycles turns out that cycle 23 is not out of the norm.  On average the maximum occurs 4 years after the minimum.  Statistics of cycles suggest that Cycle 24 may be small though cycles have been growing in sunspot number since 1700.  Should we be worried about another Maunder Minimum (one of the grand minimum)?  Grand minimum occur once every 400 years, we are currently in a grand maximum.  "Prediction is very difficult especially about the future" (Niels Bohr).  Forecasting an ongoing cycle is easiest about 2-3 into a new cycle (at the inflection point of the rise).  Geomagnetic precursors suggest a (slightly) smaller than average cycle 24 or a much larger cycle depending on who you talk to.  Geomagnetic indices (and polar field strength) are best at predicting solar cycles.  Polar fields are currently weaker by a factor of 2 than previous solar minimum.  Polar field indices predict a much smaller cycle 24.  The first dynamo predictions suggest a cycle 24 will be much larger than cycle 23 though big cycles usually start early which has not been observed (some caveats suggest that independent confirmation of this prediction is necessary).  Another dynamo model (Choudhuri 2007) predicts a small cycle 24 in keeping with geodynamic predictions (caveats also exist for this method). 
 +
 +
Cycle 24 may be large or small!  And should exist (we hope).  We should know by the end of 2010. 
 +
 +
A link to the powerpoint presentation should be placed here.
 +
 +
=== Recalibration of the Sunspot number and consequences for prediction of future activity and reconstructions of past solar behavior by L. Svalgaard ===
== Working Groups ==
== Working Groups ==

Revision as of 17:49, 8 December 2008

Meeting
Name: {{{name}}}
Start Date: 07 Dec 2008
End Date: 12 Dec 2008
Location: Napa, CA, U.S.A.
Official Website: http://sprg.ssl.berkeley.edu/RHESSI/napa2008

Contents

Summary

The main goals of this meeting is to assess our current knowledge of solar activity to prepare for observations of the new major activity expected from the beginning of Carrington Cycle 24, and to encourage effective observations of this activity. There will be special emphasis on coordinating ACE, Hinode, STEREO, TRACE/SDO, SOHO, RHESSI and Wind observations, among others including ground-based. The conference is composed of a mixture of invited and contributed talks in plenary sessions, plus focused working groups and took place December 8 - December 12, 2008. The week before the AGU Fall meeting in San Francisco. The location of the meeting is The Embassy Suites Hotel in Napa, California (wine country north of San Francisco). Check-in 16:00, Check-out 12:00. For those staying at the hotel there is daily complimentary cooked-to-order breakfast and evening manager's reception. The registration fee itself covers the meeting, coffee breaks and the conference dinner. The official website can be found here

Notes

Solar Activity Cycles - Past and Present by D. Hathaway (Marshall Space Flight Center)

Will there be a cycle 24? New cycle active regions have begun to show up the last two months. The number of spotless days is more than twice that of the last few cycles. Also Cycle 23 is the longest cycle than the last few cycles. Looking at a stastics of older cycles turns out that cycle 23 is not out of the norm. On average the maximum occurs 4 years after the minimum. Statistics of cycles suggest that Cycle 24 may be small though cycles have been growing in sunspot number since 1700. Should we be worried about another Maunder Minimum (one of the grand minimum)? Grand minimum occur once every 400 years, we are currently in a grand maximum. "Prediction is very difficult especially about the future" (Niels Bohr). Forecasting an ongoing cycle is easiest about 2-3 into a new cycle (at the inflection point of the rise). Geomagnetic precursors suggest a (slightly) smaller than average cycle 24 or a much larger cycle depending on who you talk to. Geomagnetic indices (and polar field strength) are best at predicting solar cycles. Polar fields are currently weaker by a factor of 2 than previous solar minimum. Polar field indices predict a much smaller cycle 24. The first dynamo predictions suggest a cycle 24 will be much larger than cycle 23 though big cycles usually start early which has not been observed (some caveats suggest that independent confirmation of this prediction is necessary). Another dynamo model (Choudhuri 2007) predicts a small cycle 24 in keeping with geodynamic predictions (caveats also exist for this method).

Cycle 24 may be large or small! And should exist (we hope). We should know by the end of 2010.

A link to the powerpoint presentation should be placed here.

Recalibration of the Sunspot number and consequences for prediction of future activity and reconstructions of past solar behavior by L. Svalgaard

Working Groups

Group B (Fast Solar Wind & Plumes)

A summary of the work of this group can be found here.

Group C (Magnetic Field Evolution)

A summary of the work of this group can be found here.

Group D (Global event energetics)

A summary of the work of this group can be found here.

Group E (Flares)

A summary of the work of this group can be found here.

Group F (CMEs)

A summary of the work of this group can be found here.

Group G (Microflares and Nanoflares)

A summary of the work of this group can be found here.

Group H (The Chromosphere)

A summary of the work of this group can be found here.

Group I (Active Region Loops)

A summary of the work of this group can be found here.

Group J (Filaments and Prominences)

A summary of the work of this group can be found here.

Personal tools
Namespaces
Variants
Actions
Navigation
Toolbox